Heat disproportionately kills young people: Evidence from wet-bulb temperature in Mexico

Abstract: Recent studies project that temperature-related mortality will be the largest source of damage from climate change, with particular concern for the elderly whom it is believed bear the largest heat-related mortality risk. We study heat and mortality in Mexico, a country that exhibits a unique combination of universal mortality microdata and among the most extreme levels of humid heat. Combining detailed measurements of wet-bulb temperature with age-specific mortality data, we find that younger people who are particularly vulnerable to heat: People under 35 years old account for 75% of recent heat-related deaths and 87% of heat-related lost life years, while those 50 and older account for 96% of cold-related deaths and 80% of cold-related lost life years. We develop high-resolution projections of humid heat and associated mortality and find that under the end-of-century SSP 3–7.0 emissions scenario, temperature-related deaths shift from older to younger people. Deaths among under-35-year-olds increase 32% while decreasing by 33% among other age groups.

Recommended citation: Wilson, A. J., Bressler, R. D., Ivanovich, C., Tuholske, C., Raymond, C., Horton, R. M., et al. (2024). Heat disproportionately kills young people: Evidence from wet-bulb temperature in Mexico. Science Advances, 10(49), eadq3367. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adq3367
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